Sufficient CertaintyDeciding

Writing

On decision-making, the method, and what organisations get wrong when they try to manage "risk" instead of deciding.

Decision Coaching: What It Is

Decision coaching helps you test your own reasoning, not buy another report. See how it works, then use it on a live decision.

Decision Fatigue at Work Is a Process Problem

Decision fatigue at work is not about willpower. It is the gap between the Decider and the decision, created by governance apparatus. See what replaces it.

Analysis Paralysis in Business Is Not a Leadership Failure

Analysis paralysis in business is manufactured by governance machinery that was never designed to produce a decision. Grant Purdy explains what breaks the cycle.

How to Overcome Analysis Paralysis

Analysis paralysis is not overcome by setting deadlines or limiting options. It ends when you surface assumptions and test for sufficient certainty.

How to Overcome Decision Fatigue

The standard tips target the wrong problem. How to overcome decision fatigue with five steps that replace the governance apparatus and produce decisions.

Decision Fatigue Examples the Standard Advice Cannot Explain

NASA, NHS Mid Staffs, Carillion, Wells Fargo: four decision fatigue examples that defeated full governance. See what surfaces assumptions instead.

Is Decision Fatigue Real?

Decision fatigue is real as an experience. The mechanism behind it is not. Three replications killed ego depletion. Here is what exhausts decision-makers.

What Analysis Paralysis Really Means

Analysis paralysis is not a personality flaw. It is a process without a stopping condition. Here is what it really means and what replaces it.

Executive Decision Fatigue Is Not About Too Many Decisions

Executive decision fatigue comes from governance apparatus, not too many decisions. Replace the committees and registers with five steps to the actual decision.

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

You never have all the facts. The question is not what you know but what you are assuming. Here is how decision-making under uncertainty actually works.

The Decision Autopsy

A structured post-decision review that reconstructs what was assumed, compares it to what actually happened, and asks: could the Decider have known then?

Risk Registers Don't Help You Decide

Enron had one. Boeing had one. The Australian banks had dozens. The risk management apparatus was fully assembled and fully useless when it mattered most.

Making Difficult Business Decisions

The $80,000 consultant report was designed to demonstrate due diligence, not to help you decide. Here is what actually works for difficult business decisions.

Vale Roger Estall

A tribute to Roger Estall, co-author of Deciding, who through his advocacy for fire safety saved more lives in New Zealand than anyone else. 21 June 2023.

Decisions Without Risk Management

On the Universal Decision-Making Method and why deliberate, skilled application of it distinguishes successful decision-makers from unsuccessful ones.

Conversations with Mark Siwik

A three-part conversation on risk management, the Universal Decision-Making Method, and nearly five decades of practical advisory work with Mark Siwik.

Why the IIA Three Lines Model Fails

Grant Purdy critiques the IIA's Three Lines of Defence Model. The 2020 refresh fixed none of the fundamental flaws in how organisations actually make decisions.

COSO ERM in a COVID-19 world

Why enterprise risk management frameworks did not and could not help organisations decide what to do about COVID-19. The pandemic proved the apparatus useless.

Should Internal Audit Assess Risk?

Should internal audit perform risk assessments? Roger Estall argues the real question is whether the organisation makes good decisions, and how it would know.

The Risk Management Millstone

How an informal label for diverse, conflicting concepts acquired the appearance of something of substance, and why it still weighs organisations down.

What Is a Decider? The Role Most Organisations Overlook

A Decider is anyone whose choices shape whether an organisation achieves its purpose. Not just executives. From the boardroom to the front line, if you influence an outcome, you are deciding.

Why Every Decision Starts with Purpose

Every organisation possesses an underlying reason for existence. Every decision must connect to and validate against it, or risk drifting into failure.

How to Monitor Your Decisions

Monitoring means checking that what was assumed when the decision was made is what is actually occurring. A decision without a monitoring plan will drift.

Anticipating Disruption

Skilled decision-makers reduce organisational vulnerability, recognise opportunities emerging from disruption, and build monitoring into every decision.